Economic Performance & Fiscal Management Profile per each President since 1913 — How have they really performed

8 min readNov 25, 2017

We’re in an interesting time, in which political partisans, pundits, elected officials and regular citizens debate the economic activity performance and fiscal management of former or current Presidents with an increasing level of frequency. I have engaged in a number of passionate debates with persons from all sides of the political spectrum, but one thing I have noticed, is a lack of details behind the debate. People have perceptions based upon what they hear from either the Traditional Mainstream Media, the Conservative Mainstream Media or the Liberal Mainstream Media or the talking point narratives from their favorite elected official or political party. While it can feel empowering to get your information from these sources, the majority have a spin that will color the narrative’s they communicate. The truth, beyond the narratives, is that each President since 1913, has had various levels of economic and fiscal management success, save Herbert Hoover. He was the worse, economically and fiscally in total. Spending my free time looking into the histories of these President’s I started pulling a number of key scorecard factors to look the reality of their performance. These factors include:

· Employment Growth

· Final Unemployment rate at the end of their term

· Federal Debt Contribution

· Stock Market Growth (Decline) %

· S&P 500 Market Growth (Decline) %

· Consumer Confidence Index

· Average hourly wage

· Real GDP

· Interest Rates — Short & Long Term

What I like to do, is to infuse data into the discussion, so that we don’t let our perceptions rule as the only driver of what has happened with each President. Their performance in these areas has too much of an impact on our lives to shortchange the impacts and real outcomes. The following breaks down each President’s performance (Data was not available for all of the President’s timeframe).

Donald Trump (2017-):

Employment — Trump has created 1.208 million jobs since February 2017

Current unemployment rate is 4.1%.

Federal Debt Contribution: Total Projected (2018 to 2021) = Surplus/(Deficit) = $2.089 trillion deficit.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit)

Barack Obama (2009–2017):

Employment — President Obama created 17.483 million jobs by the end of January 2017, a 12.8 percent increase. There were 152.324 million people employed at the end of his term. That’s compared to 134.844 million working at the end of the Bush Administration. But that doesn’t give the total picture. The economy lost 8.7 million jobs as a result of the 2008 financial crisis. It kept shedding them until January 2010. Since that low point, Obama created 22.522 million jobs, a 17.2 percent increase.

Final unemployment rate — 4.7%.

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $7.917 trillion, a 68 percent increase from the $11.657 trillion debt at the end of George W. Bush’s last budget, FY 2009.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) Total Expected plus Actual Deficits = $6.690 trillion, a 57 percent increase.

George W. Bush (2001–2009):

Employment — President Bush created 2.1 million jobs during his eight-year term. That’s because he struggled with two recessions. He lost 3.6 million jobs in 2008, his last year in office.

Final unemployment rate was 6.8%.

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $5.849 trillion, a 101 percent increase from the $5.8 trillion debt at the end of Clinton’s last budget, FY 2001.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $3.293 trillion deficit, a 57 percent increase.

Bill Clinton (1993–2001):

Employment — Clinton added 21.5 million jobs, a 19.6 percent increase. There were 131 million people employed in December 1999, the end of his term. That’s 21.5 million more than the 109.5 million employed at the beginning of his term.

Final unemployment rate was 3.9%.

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $1.396 trillion, a 32 percent increase from the $4.4 trillion debt at the end of George H.W. Bush’s last budget, FY 1993.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $63 billion surplus, a 1 percent decrease.

George H.W. Bush (1989–1993):

Employment — Added 2.6 million jobs, a 17.6 percent increase.

Final unemployment rate was 7.9%

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $1.554 trillion, a 54 percent increase from the $2.8 trillion debt at the end of Reagan’s last budget, FY 1989.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $1.036 trillion deficit, a 36 percent increase.

Ronald Reagan (1981–1989):

Employment — Reagan added 15.9 million jobs during his eight-year term, a 17.6 percent increase. There were 106.9 million people working in December 1988 compared to 91 million in December 1980.

Final unemployment rate was 5.3%.

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $1.86 trillion, a 186 percent increase from the $998 billion debt at the end of Carter’s last budget, FY 1981. Reaganomics didn’t work to grow the economy enough to offset tax cuts.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $1.412 trillion deficit, a 142 percent increase

Jimmy Carter (1977–1981):

Employment — Added 10.5 million jobs, a 13 percent increase.

Final unemployment rate was 7.5%.

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $299 billion, a 43 percent increase from the $699 billion debt at the end of Ford’s last budget, FY 1977.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $253 billion deficit, a 36 percent increase.

Gerald Ford (1974–1977):

Employment — Added 2.4 million jobs, a 3.1 percent increase.

Final unemployment rate was 7.8%

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $224 billion, a 47 percent increase from the $475 billion debt at the end of Nixon’s last budget, FY 1974.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $181 billion deficit, a 38 percent increase.

Richard Nixon (1969–1974):

Employment — Nixon added 8.8 million jobs to the 69.246 million workers at the end of the Johnson Administration. That’s a 12.7 percent increase.

Final unemployment rate was (see Ford).

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $121 billion, a 34 percent increase from the $354 billion debt at the end of LBJ’s last budget, FY 1969.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $70 billion deficit, a 20 percent increase.

Lyndon B. Johnson (1963–1969):

Employment — Johnson added 11.9 million jobs to the 57.36 million employed in December 1963. That’s a 20.7 percent increase.

Final unemployment rate was 3.4%.

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $42 billion, a 13 percent increase from the $312 billion debt at the end of JFK’s last budget, FY 1964.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $36 billion deficit, an 11 percent increase.

John F. Kennedy (1961–1963):

Employment — Kennedy added 3.6 million jobs, a 6.7 percent increase.

Final unemployment rate was (see Johnson).

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $23 billion, an 8 percent increase from the $289 billion debt at the end of Eisenhower’s last budget, FY 1961.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $18 billion deficit, a 6 percent increase.

Dwight Eisenhower (1953–1961):

Employment — Eisenhower added 3.6 million jobs, a 7.1 percent increase.

Final unemployment rate was 6.1%.

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $23 billion, a 9 percent increase from the $266 billion debt at the end of Truman’s last budget, FY 1953.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $15 billion deficit, a 6 percent increase.

Harry Truman (1945–1953):

Employment — Truman added 8.3 million jobs, a 19.8 percent increase.

Final unemployment rate was 2.8%.

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $7 billion, a 3 percent increase from the $259 billion debt at the end of FDR’s last budget, FY 1945.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $5 billion deficit, a 2 percent increase.

Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933–1945):

Employment — Roosevelt added 10.3 million jobs, a 32.7 percent increase over the 31.5 million workers since 1939.

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $236 billion, a 1,048 percent increase from the $23 billion debt at the end of Hoover’s last budget, FY 1933.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $194 billion deficit, a 186 percent increase.

Herbert Hoover (1929–1933):

Employment — Hoover lost 6.4 million jobs, a decrease of 5.41%.

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $6 billion, a 33 percent increase from the $17 billion debt at the end of Coolidge’s last budget, FY 1929.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $5 billion deficit, a 30 percent increase.

Calvin Coolidge (1923–1929):

Employment — Coolidge added 2.6 Million jobs, a 2.13% increase.

Federal Debt Contribution: Subtracted $5 billion from the debt, a 26 percent decrease from the $21 billion debt at the end of Harding’s last budget, FY 1923.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $5 billion surplus deficit, a 26 percent decrease.

Warren G. Harding (1921–1923):

Federal Debt Contribution: Subtracted $2 billion from the debt, a 7 percent decrease from the $24 billion debt at the end of Wilson’s last budget, FY 1921.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $1 billion surplus, a 6 percent decrease.

Woodrow Wilson:

Federal Debt Contribution: Added $21 billion to the debt, a 727 percent increase from the $2.9 billion debt at the end of Taft’s last budget, FY 1913.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $22 billion deficit, a 775 percent increase.

FY 1789 — FY 1913:

Federal Debt Contribution: $2.9 billion debt created.

Fiscal Year Gross Surplus/(Deficit) = $1 billion surplus (Source: Historical Tables, U.S. Treasury Department.)

Data Sources

https://www.bls.gov/cps/

http://www.stateofworkingamerica.org/charts/hourly-wage-growth/

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6f54/e1520e3d629015a5e1c1350bf9f41412f4d0.pdf

https://historyinpieces.com/research/us-unemployment-rates-president

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/glance.htm