The Future — Today & Tomorrow’s Immigration Policy Series — Just the Truth Part Three

The Future — Today & Tomorrow’s Comprehensive Immigration and Border Security Legislation Plan

Immigration policies and border security measures involve a complex interplay of national security, humanitarian concerns, economic considerations, and adherence to international law. The way it works and how to make it better can not be addressed with “easy words” and “grandiose statements”, it requires actual work, details and solutions. In our previous segments, we provided an overview on both the history of American Immigration policy and the functionality of our Immigration laws. This was critical to clear up the lies from MAGA Dictatorship Republicans who say America’s immigration system is “open and non-functional”, which isn’t true.

The Future — Today & Tomorrow would recommend that the Vice President Harris, Democratic members of Congress and the small number of Non-MAGA Republicans adopt immigration legislation that goes beyond what President Biden and the bipartisan border security bill has requested, to not only fund security measures, but also fund the number of additional immigration judges, attorneys and support staff would be needed to decrease the time to process an asylum, refugee or immigration claim by 50% per year over the next six years and adopt language to make clearer paths for legal immigration, naturalized citizenship and deportation/removal.

Immigration review and processing investment

Situational Assessment of the Immigration backlog: The Executive Office for Immigration Review (EOIR) under the Department of Justice manages the U.S. immigration court system and its pending case backlog. We assessed the EOIR and President Biden’s budget requests to expand the staffing to measure how the resources recommended will decrease the time to process immigration claims. Here are the key findings:

1. Immigration Courts’ Backlog: At the end of the first quarter of FY2022, the immigration courts’ backlog reached an all-time high of 1.5 million cases, with 578 immigration judges (IJs) on staff to adjudicate them.
2. Annual Case Receipts: Over the last five fiscal years (FY2017-FY2021), immigration courts received an average of 353,761 cases annually, with the number of cases pending in the courts increasing every fiscal year for the past 15 years.
3. EOIR’s Strategic Focus: EOIR’s primary strategic focus is to reduce the caseload of nearly 1.8 million pending cases as of the end of FY2022 by increasing adjudicatory and case processing capacity.
4. FY 2024 Budget Request: The FY 2024 budget request for EOIR is $1,455.3 Billion, which includes a program change of +$517.1 million from FY 2023. This budget plans for 5,160 positions, including 2,178 attorneys, representing an increase from the 4,195 positions and 1,785 attorneys in FY 2023.
5. Backlog Reduction Initiative: EOIR’s backlog reduction initiative plans to add 150 new immigration judges, critical legal support staff, and 948 Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) positions. This will bring the total number of authorized IJs to 884.

If the goal is to reduce immigration claims processing time by 50% within the first fiscal year, 578 IJs are currently handling a backlog of 1.5 million case before any new cases are added will not work and increasing the number to 884 IJ’s will not get you to the desired objective either. A Democratic Majority Congress and President Harris will need to double the number of IJs to potentially achieve this, bringing the total to 1,156, assuming linear scalability. The need for attorneys and support staff is proportional to the increase in IJ’s. President Biden’s October 2023 Immigration proposal recommended adding 387 attorneys, which is too low. The number of IE Attorney’s must be doubled to 774 within the next fiscal year budget. Support staff needs would scale similarly.

How much will this ramped up investment cost?

To reach the staffing levels sufficiently to reduce processing time by 50%, an additional budget increase for the EOIR of approximately $1,034,200,000 would be required for Fiscal Year 2025. This estimation assumes the average cost per new position remains consistent with the planned increases for FY 2024 and that the cost distribution among judges, attorneys, and support staff is relatively uniform.

How much would we have to increase the many additional immigration judges, attorneys and support staff would be added each year to reduce processing time by 50% for each of the five fiscal years?

Starting with the baseline FY 2024 budget request for EOIR is $1,455.3 billion, the additional budget allocation for each of the next six years by applying the 4% annual increase to the previous year’s budget. The first year’s budget is the additional $1034.2 million required for the increased staffing levels. Let’s calculate:

The estimated budgets for maintaining and increasing the staffing levels over the next five fiscal years, considering an annual employment cost increase of 4%, are as follows (in million dollars):

1. Year 1: $1,034.2 billion (Added to FY 202 budget request for EOIR of $1,455.3 billion)
2. Year 2: $1,075.57 billion (Added to FY 2024 budget request for EOIR of $1,455.3 billion)
3. Year 3: $1,118.59 billion (Added to FY 2024 budget request for EOIR of $1,455.3 billion)
4. Year 4: $1,163.33 billion (Added to FY 2024 budget request for EOIR of $1,455.3 billion)
5. Year 5: $1,209.87 billion (Added to FY 2024 budget request for EOIR of $1,455.3 billion)
6. Year 6: $1,258,26 billion (Added to FY 2024 budget request for EOIR of $1,455.3 billion)

These figures reflect the compounding effect of a 4% annual increase on the additional budget required for the increased staffing levels. This approach provides a general estimate, assuming that the cost of employment (including salaries, benefits, and related expenses) increases uniformly each year. However, actual budget requirements may vary due to factors such as changes in economic conditions, policy decisions, and specific employment contract terms.

After increasing the number of immigration judges to 1,156 and Attorneys to 774 for the first fiscal year of my proposed legislation, the estimated annual increase in immigration judges, attorneys, and support staff for the next five fiscal years would be as follows:

• Additional Immigration Judges: Approximately 104 judges per year.
• Additional Attorneys and Support Staff: Approximately 275 attorneys and support staff per year.
• Total Additional Staff: Approximately 379 staff members per year.

These figures represent the estimated number of additional staff members that would be added each year to achieve a 50% reduction in processing time.

Under the plan to increase staffing and achieve a 50% reduction in case processing time each year, the average number of cases handled per judge each year and the backlog at the end of 6 years would be as follows:

• Year 1: Each judge handles approximately 3,207 cases.
• Year 2: Each judge handles approximately 2,199 cases.
• Year 3: Each judge handles approximately 558 cases.
• Year 4: Each judge handles approximately 397 cases.
• Year 5: Each judge handles approximately 356 cases.
• Year 6: Each judge handles approximately 322 cases.

At the end of the 6 years, the backlog would be reduced to 0 cases.

This scenario assumes that the system’s capacity to resolve cases effectively doubles each year due to the combined effects of increased staffing and improved efficiency. The reduction in the number of cases per judge over the years reflects the increasing number of judges and the system’s enhanced capacity to process cases more quickly.

Border Security Measures:

Implementing a multi-faceted approach to border security that combines physical barriers (where appropriate), technology (such as surveillance systems), and increased personnel to compliment the combined law enforcement deployment of 53,973 Federal, State, County and Municipal Law enforcement officers at the border to improve border management. Specific legislative details would include:

1. Customs and Border Protection (CBP): Increase staffing proportionally to the rise in encounters. Prioritize sectors with the highest encounter rates, such as the Rio Grande Valley and Tucson sectors.
2. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE): Allocate more agents to regions with high illegal reentry rates and criminal activity. Enhance support for detention and removal operations.
3. Federal Law Enforcement Agencies (ATF, DEA, FBI): Focus ATF resources on arms trafficking. Assign DEA agents to drug trafficking hotspots. Deploy FBI resources for complex investigations and intelligence gathering.
4. Increase Specialized Units: Enhance specialized units within ICE, such as HSI, focusing on combating human trafficking, drug smuggling, and other cross-border crimes. Allocate a significant portion of the new positions to these units.
5. Enhanced Legal Support: Strengthen OPLA by allocating more positions to handle the increased workload in immigration proceedings, aiding in more efficient processing of cases.
6. State and Local Law Enforcement: Utilize the 14,073 state police officers and 13,900 local law enforcement officers in border jurisdictions for integrated operations, especially in high-traffic areas. Strengthen partnerships with local law enforcement in border jurisdictions for intelligence sharing and joint task force operations.
7. Technology and Surveillance Enhancement: Allocate resources for technological advancements, such as improved surveillance systems, drones, and other monitoring equipment such as Non-Intrusive Inspection (NII) systems to enhance inspection capabilities, including fentanyl detection, to maximize the efficiency of the existing workforce.
8. Training and Development: Invest in continuous training and development programs for all levels of staff to enhance their skills in handling the dynamic challenges at the border.
9. Humanitarian Response Units: Create specialized units with integrated humanitarian crisis management partnership with NGO’s and Community Organizations to supplement existing operational staff that handle humanitarian aspects, such as processing asylum seekers and providing aid to those in distress.
10. Administrative and Support Roles: Ensure adequate staffing in administrative and support roles to assist frontline officers and agents, including logistics, healthcare, and legal services.

In addition, we recommend legislative text to provide for increased Federal Law Enforcement Agency personnel funding for cross agency border security law enforcement strategies. Our approach would include increasing budget and new hiring across the following agencies (in addition to President Biden’s October 2023 Border Supplement Staffing legislative proposal):

• Hire 1,000 additional ATF Criminal Investigative field officers, a total of approximately $315,597,222.22 would be needed.
• Hire an additional 750 ATF Law Enforcement agents, a total of approximately $171,530,250.
• Hire 1,000 additional DEA domestic enforcement field officers, based on the estimated cost per officer, a total of approximately $320,367,151.35 would be needed.
• To hire an additional 2,000 Border Patrol Agents and 1,000 Office of Field Operations Officers, the estimated funding required would be as follows:
• For 2,000 Border Patrol Agents: Approximately $399.86 million.
• For 1,000 Office of Field Operations Officers: Approximately $193.81 million.

Therefore, the total additional funding needed for Border Patrol and Field Operations Agents would be approximately $593.67 million.

This estimate includes all associated costs for each officer, such as salary, benefits, training, equipment, and operational expenses. The total required funding amount for this additional 5,750 Federal law enforcement staff for border related functions would equal $1,405,164,623 for the next fiscal year. We would recommend maintaining this staffing enhancement for six fiscal years in total, at the same level, adjusted for cost of personnel and inflation consideration.

It’s important to balance the need for security with respect for human rights and international law. A multi-agency approach that includes effective border security with humanitarian considerations and legal processes and expanded community engagement can effectively manage the complex challenges at the southern border. It will also be essential to continuously assess the situation at the border and adjust staffing and resource allocation accordingly to respond to changing dynamics and challenges.

Can this type of cross agency law enforcement strategy for the increase in migrants at the southern border be effective in reducing illegal crossings and improve managing the increased number of arriving migrants at the Southern border?

A cross-agency law enforcement strategy that coordinates efforts among various agencies like the Border Patrol, ICE, DEA, ATF, and FBI can be effective in addressing the complex challenges at the southern border. Such a strategy would allow for a more integrated approach to border security, enabling agencies to leverage their unique capabilities and resources more effectively. This approach can potentially reduce illegal crossings by enhancing enforcement capabilities and intelligence sharing. It can also improve the management of the increasing number of arriving migrants by ensuring a more coordinated and humane response, balancing enforcement with the need for adequate processing and care for those seeking entry. However, the effectiveness of this strategy depends on well-defined roles, clear communication channels, and a shared understanding of policy objectives among all involved agencies.

Immigration entry policy modifications

Establishing fair and efficient asylum procedures that comply with international law and allow individuals fleeing persecution or violence to seek protection. This includes providing access to legal counsel and ensuring humane treatment of asylum seekers.

Asylum and Refugee Policies:

Are there any ways to make the asylum screening and decision making process more efficient or quicker?

Improving the efficiency and speed of the asylum screening and decision-making process is a complex challenge, but there are several common sense strategies that could potentially make the process more efficient and quicker:

1. Streamline Administrative Procedures: Simplifying and streamlining administrative processes can reduce the time taken to process applications. This might include digitizing paperwork and improving information sharing among different agencies.
2. Enhanced Training for Asylum Officers and Judges: Providing specialized training can improve the efficiency of decision-making. Officers and judges with greater expertise and experience can process cases more quickly without compromising the quality of decisions.
3. Use of Technology: Implementing advanced technology for background checks and data verification can speed up the vetting process. Technologies like biometric verification and digital document management can enhance both speed and accuracy.
4. Remote Video Interviews and Hearings: Utilizing video conferencing for interviews and court hearings can reduce delays related to transportation and logistics. It also allows officers and judges to handle cases from various locations more efficiently.
5. Priority Processing in Urgent Cases: Implementing a system to identify and fast-track urgent cases, such as those involving unaccompanied minors or individuals with medical emergencies, can help address the most pressing cases quickly.
6. Collaboration with International and Non-Governmental Organizations: Partnering with international agencies and NGOs can help in pre-screening and gathering preliminary data, which can expedite the process once the application reaches U.S. authorities.
7. Public Legal Education: Educating asylum seekers about the process, requirements, and necessary documentation can help ensure that applications are complete and accurate, reducing the time needed for clarifications and additional documentation.
8. Case Management Improvements: Efficient case management systems can help track and manage the progress of applications more effectively, identifying bottlenecks and areas for improvement.
9. Feedback and Continuous Improvement: Regularly reviewing and updating policies and procedures based on feedback and new challenges can help in making continuous improvements in the process.

Pathways to Citizenship:

Creating pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants already living in the country, which may involve a combination of requirements such as background checks, payment of taxes, learning English, military or public works service and meeting residency criteria.

We at the Future — Today & Tomorrow recommend passing legislation like the U.S. Citizenship Act of 2021 or the American Dream and Promise Act of 2023, which would give Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients and Dreamers, Temporary Protected Status (TPS) holders, and individuals with Deferred Enforced Departure (DED) with protection from deportation and an opportunity to obtain permanent citizenship and/or permanent legal status in the United States if they meet certain requirements. We need to add additional legal status opportunities for undocumented noncitizens who are currently employed or own functioning businesses, especially if they have employees. Our economy is enhanced by these undocumented noncitizens and we can’t afford to take them out of the continuum of economic activity.

More broadly, The Future — Today & Tomorrow will support candidates and actively lobby for the legislative charge to give the millions of noncitizen, undocumented immigrants who haven’t violated any existing non-immigration laws, an opportunity for citizenship or legal resident status, providing they pass the stringent level of background checks, payment of back taxes (if they are delinquent), military and/or public safety service credit and meeting other residency requirements. We can facilitate this with the expansion of staffing in the EOIR office to process these citizenship claims and without the evil, non-Christian approach of MAGA John, MAGA Dictator Trump & the Racist policy of mass deportations.

Temporary Worker Programs:

Establishing or expanding temporary worker programs for sectors facing labor shortages, ensuring protections for both workers and employers and preventing exploitation.

Noncitizens paroled into the United States through CBP One program and CHNV parolees into our parole process and those granted Temporary Protected Status (TPS), Uniting for Ukraine (U4U) temporary status persons and victims of human trafficking and other crimes (T and U visas) are eligible to apply immediately for work authorization, which enables them to support themselves and their families, reduce the burden on receiving cities, and contribute to the United States economy. We at The Future — Today & Tomorrow recommend increasing the number of Temporary Worker Programs visas by roughly 2,000,000 per year to help fill the employment positions that native born Americans will not take. We also recommend adding an additional 250 new USCIS officers per year for a total of 1,500 over the next 6 years to speed up the issuance of work authorization documents for eligible noncitizens. This will get more eligible persons into the workforce.

Integration and Assimilation — helping municipalities and counties with immigration integration:

Right now, municipalities and counties around America are struggling to manage the influx and migration of both documented and undocumented persons in America. There is a need for more federal support to help these communities because their current budgets and county and State budgets don’t have readily available surplus dollars to fill service and funding gaps. This has been done through Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Emergency Food and Shelter Program (EFSP) historically and going forward through the new Shelter and Services Program (SSP), to be operated out of Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency. The EFSP functions as more of a limited emergency response program, the SSP has the capacity to operate in a more forward thinking provider of services and support for an orderly, humane, and sustainable policies and programs that facilitate the reception and processing of people seeking asylum in the US. The EFSP was primarily structured to support border communities, non-profits and Non-Government Organizations (NGO) with immigration placement and supportive services, yet the geographical needs have expanded. Municipalities beyond the southern border cities are being pressed into providing humanitarian services, integration and assimilation services to noncitizen immigrants being improperly transferred by MAGA Dictatorship Republican Governors who seek to use families, unaccompanied children and persons fleeing desperate situation as political tools absent of coordination with the receiving cities or Federal agencies, humane consideration and care. The current funding for these programs equals $800 million, which was appropriated by Congress in the Fiscal Year 2023 omnibus but the financial needs are greater and more comprehensive than the current funding allows for and the coordination dependence on NGO’s, local governments and State governments to fill in the gap is irresponsible and reckless. This limited funding hampers the ability to help with assimilation and integration of immigrants into the communities which they are located in, which is equally illogical and irrational.

This is why we at the Future — Today & Tomorrow recommends going farther than the bipartisan border legislation and President Biden’s immigration proposal that was a part of his National Security supplemental proposal at the beginning of 2024 and substantially increase funding for implementing policies that facilitate the integration of immigrants into our Multicultural, Multiracial American society, including language and cultural education, access to healthcare, education, and social services. Both the EFSP-H and SSP programs needs to have their appropriations annual funding increased to a combined total of $18 billion per fiscal year within either the next immigration bill, the next continuing budget resolution supplemental or a full appropriations bill for the Department of Homeland Security for the next four fiscal years and scale it down as the need subsides starting in FY 2029. MAGA Dictatorship Republican complain about this issue but never introduce or support legislation to help with immigrant integration and are openly hostile to Non-White immigrants and programs that support immigrant integration that isn’t White Nationalist focused, ignoring the fact that over 150 million Americans are Non-White. Integration must be inclusive and Pro All of America, not MAGA Anti-American Indoctrination Mythology, which is why we also recommend that the bipartisan immigration bill require coordination between State, County and Local Governments in the facilitation of services to noncitizen immigrants and include civil and criminal penalties for States that disregard human and civil rights in the treatment, lodging and transporting of noncitizen immigrants.

Fiscal benefits of adopting our solution

There are significant positive financial and economic benefits and impacts of adopting these immigration proposals from The Future — Today & Tomorrow. Here’s a few data points for consideration.

Economic impact studies

Several studies that the Federal Reserve Branch of Chicago reviewed examined the economic impact and outcomes for refugees at the local level. A 2012 study examined effects in Cleveland, Ohio, and found a total economic impact estimated at $48 million and the creation of 650 jobs (Chmura Economics & Analytics 2013). A similar analysis was conducted in 2015 in the Columbus, Ohio, metropolitan area and showed that the 16,596 refugees in the area supported 21,273 jobs and contributed $1.6 billion to the local economy (Community Research Partners 2015). Another study focused on refugee integration in Colorado over the five-year period from 2011 through 2015, and among other findings noted that employment rates among refugees rose from 17 percent in their first year of U.S. residence to 63.5 percent in their third year (Quality Evaluation Designs 2016). In a nutshell, refugees contribute a net economic benefit to all communities they live within.

The current Federal, State and Local tax revenue that America receives from undocumented immigrants is significant. Per a 2024 study by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy[1] undocumented immigrants paid the following amounts of Federal, State and Local taxes in 2022:

· Undocumented immigrants paid $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes in 2022. Most of that amount, $59.4 billion, was paid to the federal government while the remaining $37.3 billion was paid to state and local governments. In 2018, they contributed $20.1 billion in federal taxes and $11.8 billion in state and local taxes.

· Given that the undocumented population included 10.9 million people in 2022, undocumented immigrants paid federal, state, and local taxes of $8,889 per person in 2022. In other words, for every 1 million undocumented immigrants who reside in the country, public services receive $8.9 billion in additional tax revenue.

· More than 33% of the tax dollars paid by undocumented immigrants go toward Federal Social Insurance (also called payroll) taxes dedicated to funding programs that these workers are barred from accessing. Undocumented immigrants paid $25.7 billion in Social Security taxes, $6.4 billion in Medicare taxes, and $1.8 billion in unemployment insurance taxes equaling $33.9 billion in 2022.

· Undocumented immigrants paid $19.5 billion[2] in Federal income taxes and $7.6 billion in other Federal taxes in 2022.

· In total, the tax contribution of undocumented immigrants amounted to 26.1 percent of their incomes in 2022. This figure is close to the 26.4 percent rate facing the median income group of the overall U.S. population.

· At the state and local levels, $15.1 billion (46%) of the tax payments made by undocumented immigrants are through sales and excise taxes levied on their purchases. Undocumented immigrants paid $10.4 billion in property taxes, such as those levied on homeowners and renters, paid $7 billion in personal and business income taxes and $4.2 billion in sales and excise taxes to states of non-residence.

· Six states raised more than $1 billion each in tax revenue from undocumented immigrants living within their borders. Those states are California ($8.5 billion), Texas ($4.9 billion), New York ($3.1 billion), Florida ($1.8 billion), Illinois ($1.5 billion), and New Jersey ($1.3 billion).

· Providing access to work authorization for undocumented immigrants would increase their tax contributions both because their wages would rise and because their rates of tax compliance would increase. Under a scenario where work authorization is provided to all current undocumented immigrants, their tax contributions would rise by $40.2 billion per year to $136.9 billion. Most of the new revenue raised in this scenario ($33.1 billion) would flow to the federal government while the remainder ($7.1 billion) would flow to states and localities.

Per the American Immigration Council Immigration in the United States Report, as of 2022, America has 3,688,100 Immigrant entrepreneurs including 1,020,900 undocumented immigrant business owners. Immigrant business owners and entrepreneurs generated a gross total of $110.0 billion[3] in total business income in 2022. Undocumented immigrants generated $330 billion in household income. For two specific legal immigration programs that Trump and MAGA Dictatorship Republicans plan to deport, the positive economic activity that would be interrupted is significant:

· Temporary Protected Status (TPS) immigrants generated $13.6 billion in household income and paid $3.1 billion in Federal, State and local taxes paid.

· Refugee immigrants generated $114.7 billion in household income, paid $31.6 billion in Federal, State and Local taxes paid and generated $6.7 billion in business income generated by refugee entrepreneurs.

In general, documented and undocumented immigrant households paid nearly one in every six tax dollars collected by federal, state, and local governments in 2022, helping fund a wide range of social services from public schools to food stamp programs and healthcare insurance for low-income families.

Workforce Integration and Economic Productivity

America needs immigrants to supplement significant population gaps within our current and future native-born workforce. Simply put, America doesn’t have enough adults to fill all of the current jobs filled and unfilled. This is why the idea of deporting millions of documented and undocumented immigrants will worsen inflation, supply chain breakdowns and increase shortages of finished market products. Food production will grind to a halt additionally, because MAGA Republican Americans are not going to take those jobs and no robot or computer based approach can fill the gap. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made a November 30, 2022 speech at the Brookins Institute[4] where he highlighted the challenges with America’s labor force. Here’s some key highlights:

· Compared to pre-pandemic projections, there are around 3.5 million people effectively missing from the American workforce

· A significant number of older workers left the labor force earlier than expected, also known as excess retirements[5]. These excess retirements might account for more than 2 million of the 3.5 million person shortfall.

· The other 1.5 million comes from a decline in immigration and “a surge in deaths.”

· Powell estimates that 400,000 working-age Americans died in excess of what was anticipated pre-pandemic in a footnote to his speech

· The number of native-born workers went from 133.2 million to 134.5 million — up barely 1%.

· The number of foreign-born workers in the U.S. increased to 29.8 million in 2022, from 27.9 million the previous year — a jump of about 6%.

· Aa bigger share of the immigrant population is of working age (18–64), at 77%, according to the nonpartisan Migration Policy Institute (MPI), compared to roughly 59% of the native-born population.

As America continues to struggle with a historically-tight labor market, immigrants are coming to the rescue of desperate employers, which keeps the growth of America growing. To the MAGA Nativists who believe immigration is a negative for current American workers, they don’t understand that Americans can’t reproduce working age adults to close the undocumented and documented immigrant portion of the workforce nor fill the current open positions beyond the current available and working labor force. It takes 18 years to raise a child to adulthood, we can’t wait 18 years for that child to be placed into an open job position from today.

According to a series of Axios articles[6] on how immigrants are stepping into our worker-starved economy[7] in 2023, during the pre-pandemic month of January 2020 and July 2023, the immigrant labor force grew by 9.5%. That compares to a tiny 1.5% growth rate among the native-born. The great retirement of the Boomer generation is taking place mainly among the native-born[8] — most immigrant workers aren’t yet facing retirement. As a result, millions of new native-born workers need to enter the workforce every year just to keep the total native-born labor force constant, let alone growing. The foreign-born labor force participation rate has jumped by 2.3 percentage points to 67% over the past two years. By contrast, the native-born rate has risen by a meagre 0.4 points, to 62.2%. “The foreign-born labor force has made a disproportionate contribution to reducing the jobs-workers gap,” as cited by Goldman Sachs economist Tim Krupa. Immigrants, including the undocumented, have a positive fiscal impact as many arrive as young adults ready to work and pay taxes without having consumed government resources for education.

The economic damage from the MAGA Dictatorship Republicans mass deportation plans

The MAGA Dictatorship Republican movement and the overwhelming majority of MAGA Dictatorship Republican candidates and elected officials support the plan under Trump’s Agenda 47 and Project 2025 plan for mass deportation of undocumented immigrants and major classes of legal immigrants and naturalized American citizens. There’s a reason to why Trump, J.D. Vance and MAGA Dictatorship Republicans inflate the number of undocumented immigrants to 20 to 40 million people, which is to justify the illegal removal of millions of legal documented immigrants and naturalized American citizens (similar to the outcomes of President Hoover’s Mexican Repatriation Act deportation program that illegally removed up to 1 million Mexican American citizens and President Eisenhower’s mass deportation program which illegally removed up to 2 million Mexican American and Hispanic American citizens). If that was to happen, instead of the adoption of positive immigration proposals and appropriation funding recommended by The Future — Today & Tomorrow, it would be a significant unfunded mandate cost to the Federal Government and rob our economic of billions of tax dollars and income outputs.

A newly released report from the American Immigration Council[9] studied different ways to mass-deport immigrants and the cost to remove them. The main fiscal analysis looked at the mass deportation of 13.3 million undocumented immigrants (11 million current estimated undocumented immigrants and 2.3 million new undocumented immigrant arrivals from 2023 through April 2024) in a single operation and the cost to implement such a plan and the financial hole it would place within our current economy. It’s a staggering economic suicide mission. The total arrest costs for a 13.3 million person single mass deportation operation would come to an estimated $89.3 billion dollars. The total detention costs for a 13.3 million person single mass-deportation operation would come to an estimated $167.8 billion dollars. The total legal processing costs for a 13.3 million single person mass-deportation operation would come to an estimated $34.1 billion dollars and the total removal costs for a 13.3 million person mass-deportation operation would come to an estimated $24.1 billion dollars. The total net estimated cost for Trump and MAGA’s 13.3 million person mass-deportation operation would come to $315.3 billion dollars. The cost burden will be unfunded, as there is no PayFor’s that can be attached to make this cost neutral to the Federal budget.

In the same report from the American Immigration Council, they looked at the loss economic and tax revenue coming from undocumented immigrants. Per their findings, deporting all 13.3 million estimated undocumented immigrants would also result in the loss of their purchasing power from the current economy, $256.8 billion in 2022 alone. That’s $256.8 billion in consumer spending in lost revenue to American businesses, which sustains those jobs for American workers. Their report also stated that we would lose the $28.3 billion in Social Security and Medicare payroll tax revenue paid by undocumented immigrants in 2022 and similar numbers going forward, which helps keep Social Security and Medicare financially sustainable while not having the expense of Social Security benefits payouts for undocumented immigrants. Overall, mass deportation would lead to a loss of 4.2% to 6.8% of U.S. GDP, or $1.1 trillion to $1.7 trillion in 2022 dollars. In comparison, the U.S. GDP shrank by 4.3% during the Great Recession between 2007 and 2009. In summation, the cost of implementing Trump and MAGA Dictatorship Republicans mass-deportation plans will contribute to the National debt and deficit, blow a huge hole in the American economy and have a negative impact on inflation and cost of living. We at The Future — Today & Tomorrow believe these logical immigration policy recommendations will serve America best and contribute to a greater country for everyone.

[1] 2024 by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy “Tax Payments by Undocumented Immigrants” Authors: Carl Davis, Marco Guzman, & Emma Sifre

[2] https://itep.org/undocumented-immigrants-taxes-2024/#:~:text=Undocumented%20immigrants%20paid%20%2496.7%20billion,to%20state%20and%20local%20governments.

[3] https://map.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/locations/national/, June 23, 2024

[4] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20221130a.htm

[5] Montes, Joshua, Christopher Smith, and Juliana Dajon (2022). ““The Great Retirement Boom”: The Pandemic-Era Surge in Retirements and Implications for Future Labor Force Participation,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022–081. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2022.081.

[6] https://www.axios.com/2023/01/13/migration-boom-labor-market

[7] https://www.axios.com/2023/05/26/immigrants-workforce-us-economy?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=social

[8] Immigrants are rescuing a worker-starved U.S. economy, Aug 29, 2023 — Economy & Business by Felix Salmon, author of Axios Markets

[9] Devastating Costs to America, Its Budget and Economy, October 3, 2024 https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/mass-deportation